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Historical Performance Analysis: How Past Encounters Affect Predictions

The football predictions are made using various statistics. The study of historical performance is one of them. The past encounters influence the predictions greatly. Several machine learning-based models are created by the experts that deliver predictions based on data like home wins, away wins, goals scored and goals conceded  in the past encounters and help bettors make correct decisions.

What is Historical Performance Analysis?

The football game has been around since years. Thus, there is a significant amount of data available to crunch and make conclusions. This analysis of the past performances is nothing but the historical performance analysis. It involves study of factors that led to the victory or defeat of teams. Also, it involves behavioral study that helps predict how the players will react or respond when the situations in the past reoccur.

Past encounters – an important part of historical performance analysis

When two teams are analyzed and their performance in the upcoming match is to be predicted, their head-to-head meetings are the first thing to analyze. These encounters dictate the importance of the upcoming match.

In the study of past encounters, the data which is mainly studied comprises:

  1. Home wins of the teams
  2. Away wins of the teams
  3. Goals scored by teams, and
  4. Goals conceded by the teams

All these statistics help determine the strength of the team. However, when we are considering past data, we analyze the team that played once. The team goes through the changes with time. So, apart from these figures, the composition of team should be studied. It helps find if the attacking side has the same edge as the past team had. With such study, the overall picture of the upcoming match can be painted and the experts can talk about what kind of match one can expect.

Past encounters help determine match winners

One of the important predictions that are largely affected by past encounters is the match result. The punters need to find the number of times their favorite team beat the opponent. They can find if the wins were on the home ground or away ground. It helps understand the resilience level of the teams and their dependence on the skill-set.

A team is said to be strong when it has beat the strong opponent, or has maintained the winning record even as a visitor. Backing such team increases the chance of winning the match result bet.

The punters can confirm their doubts by referring to the odds movement. Bookies reduce the odds if their chosen team scores the goal in the first quarter of the match; this shows that they have shown good faith on the favorite team.

Motivation levels are affected by the past encounters

The teams who have met often in the past share interesting history. The stronger team is motivated to maintain the winning spree while the weaker team is determined to improve their record against the opponent. Thus, the punters can predict the bets like Over 2.5, Half-time/full-time correct score, and match result correctly when the teams show aggressive play in response to their motivation to settle the scores in the past.

The past encounters can be clubbed with the team’s current position in the tournament. If the team has to avoid a relegation, or need points to move to the knock-off round, it can show its best game. This determination can become more pronounced when the opponent team is arch rival. So, the hold over the match can be predicted by the stakes put on the match.

Past performance determines behavior in upcoming match

In historical performance analysis, the situations surrounding the match are evaluated. These are then matched with the ones that are prevalent in current conditions. The team tactics and player behavior in the conditions of the past match can be weighed against the current circumstances. It is believed that the teams will show the same behavior during the match when the conditions in the past are similar. So, the punters can take a clue from the moves made, goals scored etc. and lay out the predictions for the next match.

By understanding the player approach, several predictions related to micro bets can be made correctly. Micro bets are the bets on the situations during the match. These are independent of the outcome of the match. So, player behavior in the past encounter can help determine if he will score the goal next, or will be shown a yellow card next. Thus, the predictions on the micro bets can be made with better accuracy as the behaviors tend to remain the same in similar situations.

Past encounters help develop prediction models

The researchers can select the variables like home wins, away wins, goals scored, etc. and try to find a pattern. With the help of pattern analysis, the prediction models are trained and made to deliver the outcome of various bets. The past encounters provide variables which can be integrated into the models to develop decision trees and other complex algorithms. The acts like data processing, data description, data mining and data exploration are carried out with the help of multiple variables. These activities can be used to find out the accuracy of the results in the model’s training phase. Thus, the bettors can learn using the prediction models and use tools which use these models to find the accuracy of outcomes. By applying these models, they can enhance the accuracy of bets and plan to generate profits.

Past encounters can be used to get data which help find out the probable movement of odds and be prepared for staking on the bet when it reaches the favorable stage.

To conclude,

The bettors perform historical performance analysis to find out how past encounters will affect the mood at the field in an upcoming game. They can  keep record of the results of the bets and include suggestions from sites like in their research. By having correct information about how the teams will behave and play in the ensuing match, and the change in odds, the punters can pick a profitable side and score winnings.

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