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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Preview and Prediction

Jeffrey Gynn

After a convincing win in game 4, the Boston Celtics look to keep rolling and close out their series against the Miami Heat. Aside from stumbling in front of the home crowd in game 2, the Celtics have been the vastly superior team in every aspect of the game. With a 3-1 series lead, the Celtics can close this one out and move on to play either Cleveland or Orlando in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. For the best picks in those games, check out the latest NBA predictions right here at Mighty Tips.

Whereas many would agree that Miami was lucky to make it this far, few would argue that Boston has been the cream of the NBA crop in 2023-24. They remain the odds-on favorite to win both the Eastern Conference, and the NBA Championship. Miami gets a bit of a break with Kristaps Porzingis being sidelined for game 5 with an injured right Achilles, but they’ll need a lot more than that to extend this series another game.

Tip-off is slated for 7:30 EST at Boston’s TD Garden. Between the playoffs and regular season, these two teams have met 7 times. The Celtics went 6-1 SU, but just 4-3 ATS. It’s also worth noting that Boston scored at least 101 points in each of those meetings.  So, what are the best bets here? Let’s take a look.

Pre-Match Moneyline Odds

Pre-Match Moneyline Odds: Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers
Boston Celtics Miami Heat
1.10 7.19

Pre-Match Spread

Boston Celtics [-13.5] @ 1.84

Miami Heat [+13.5] @ 2.03

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat: Another Huge Spread

If you are determined to bet on the Celtics, then you probably won’t find any value in those bottom-of-the-barrell 1.10 odds. Even if you get a marginally better price, it will still be far too low. That means that Boston backers will need to decide whether they want to give up 13.5 points. One interesting thing about the spread is that most of our highest rated basketball bookmakers that opened with a 14.5 spread have lowered the number to 13.5. That tells us something. Let’s dig a bit deeper.

In Boston’s three playoff wins against Miami, they won two games by 20 points and the other by 14. The previous two 20-point thumpings happened in games 1 and 2 in Boston. As a double-digit home fave, Boston has gone 21-2 SU and 12-9-2 ATS over its last 23. This includes the 3-1 ATS record in this series.

On the other side of the court, we have one of the most profitable road teams in sports over their past 20 road games. Miami is 13-7 SU and an incredible 15-4-1 ATS in those games. While they have only been double-digit road dogs 10 times since late 2018, they are still 9-1 ATS in those games, with that one stain being the big loss to Boston in Game 1. While I’m not recommending Miami on the moneyline, there is a fair amount of value there. However, if you want to back the Heat, you’re likely best off taking the 13.5 points unless you can somehow still get it at 14 or 14.5. And that’s exactly what I’m going to do. I might also place another wager or two after I have a look at the latest football predictions and picks.

Best Pick: Miami Heat [+13.5] 2.03 | Place Bet

Additional Pick: Boston Team [Total Over 106.5] 1.92 | Place Bet

Boston Celtics Injuries, News, Schedule

Kristaps Porzingis will miss the game with an injured right Achilles. There is no current timetable for his return.

Miami Heat Injuries, New, Schedule

Miami Heat will continue to miss Jimmy Butler who remains out with an MCL sprain. Jaime Jaquez Jr. is out with a hip flexor strain while Terry Rozier’s out while he deals with neck issues. Of course, Josh Richardson won’t be back this year.

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Betting Tips

  • The Over is 7-2 in Boston’s last 9 home games
  • The Over is 7-1 in Miami’s Last 8 games
    Over 198.5  | 1.93

  • Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a double-digit underdog.
  • Boston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a double digit favorite.
    Miami Heat +13.5  | 2.03

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